The London Midland website is carrying an announcement about possible service disruption due to the overtime agreement between ASLEF and the train company not being renewed. No train crew = no train so it is very likely that we will find situations where services are cancelled on us.
London Midland appear to be trying to give warning about where services may/may not be disrupted (see Potential disruption to services from 31 January 2011) but it seems likely that there will be some unexpected cancellations.
There's nothing on the London Midland site which refers to the reason behind this action and the ASLEF website makes no direct reference to it. I suspected that it might have been linked to the same issues which nearly resulted in a strike before Christmas (see Rail strike 23-Dec) but then found the following in the London Midland area of the union website:
"END TO REST DAY WORKING - 12 Jan 2011
ASLEF Executive Committee reject LM’s request to extend Rest Day Working Agreement.
After giving consideration to reports submitted by the District Organiser and Company Council, the ASLEF Executive Committee rejected London Midland’s request to extend the Rest Day Working Agreement.
The Company Council reported that the existing training agreement, relating to additional Trent Valley services has come to conclusion and they have yet to reach agreement with London Midland regarding the introduction of Class 172 DMUs. (A meeting had been arranged for the 22nd of December to discuss Class 172 training, but was then postponed by LM at short notice).
If LM are serious about wanting an extension to rest day working, further discussions will need to take place on the following issues: Class 172 introduction, depot establishments, establishment calculators and the utilisation of rest day working.
THE LONDON MIDLAND REST DAY WORKING AGREEMENT COMES TO AN END ON SATURDAY THE 29th JANUARY 2011"
It looks like the Class 172 DMUs are for Birmingham services in the northern section of the London Midland network which probably explains why the company is predicted that most of the planned cancellations will be in that area rather than at the London end.
We'll have to see how the next few weeks pan out, but this may not be as serious for London commuters as perhaps it first appears. There is though a dark cloud gathering on the horizon. It looks like ASLEF have been granted leave to appeal on the injunction that stopped the drivers' strike on 23 December, so one way or another we could have some difficult travel days ahead... (See High Court injunction: ASLEF granted leave to appeal).